Friday, May 10, 2019
It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher. The Dow gained 114 points on average volume. the advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still heading lower. Tariffs came and it was already in the market. Buying to lows today would have worked. I just couldn't bring myself to do it. The US/China drama isn't over though as a deal has yet to be done. China says it plans on some kind of retaliation, so we'll have to see what transpires over the weekend. The technical picture looks brighter though as moving averages have held for now. The daily candlestick charts look promising as well, with potential hammers in place. Plus the short term indicators are turning back up. Of course that could all change with one negative headline but it could also lead to a rally with a positive one. GE was up almost a dime on average volume. Gold and the US dollar finished little changed. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on pretty light volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Quite an interesting week in the markets. The VIX has now rolled back down and that is a plus for the bulls. On the longer term charts for the major averages there is a bearish potential double top in place if we don't rally back up and take out the recent highs. Hasn't happened yet and I don't think that it will but it's something to keep an eye on. Something else to watch is the weekly chart for RUT. It hasn't been able to make it back above its 50 week moving average. RUT is usually a leader, so I would keep an eye on it here. Of course we're at the mercy of the news this weekend and anything that comes out of the US/China discussions. It seems that the raising of the Chinese tariffs by the US didn't have the negative effect that most thought it would. Or perhaps today was just some enormous short covering going into the weekend. Whatever the case we should know more on Monday morning. Option expiration week is upon us but I'm not sure that the usual positive bias will take effect. That's a guess on my part. It looks like the SPY May call trade was to be done today on the lows, so I wouldn't chase that idea anymore. I'll be checking the charts this weekend to see what else is out there. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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