Tuesday, May 07, 2019
The Dow got clobbered today as it lost 473 points on good volume. The advance/declines were shy of 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is now heading down. Tariff wars are back between the US and China with a Friday deadline. We were off just about 600 points but made a comeback in the final half hour. All the major indices were down but at least we didn't close on the lows. The VIX jumped to almost a reading of 22 as volatility has returned. I'm not sure exactly how long these conditions will last. My best guess is that some kind of compromise is going to occur before the Friday deadline. I do not think that either party wants an all out trade war. But we'll just have to wait and see what happens. However a huge rally in the next few days isn't out of the question in my mind. Nothing has fundamentally changed in the past couple of days. It's all simply rhetoric and mindless threats at this point. Not to mention squeezing the low volatility players. GE was off 1/3 on average volume. Gold and the US dollar both finished little changed. The XAU rose 7/8, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was good. It look like trying the GDX calls here would have worked but we'll have to see how the rest of the week plays out. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The short term technical indicators on all the major indexes have rolled over. Some of them still have room to drop. We're approaching the 50 day moving averages for some. Whether or not thing hold up there will determine if we're heading down to the 200 days or not. The VIX is pretty overbought now and I would not be surprised to see a pause in the selling. But the summation index has headed down with gusto, so care is needed on the long side. Headline risk is now extreme in either direction and that isn't a good environment for trading. Whipsaws become the rule and not the exception. I would tread carefully here and be ready to exit trades after quick profits. I do not expect an extended move lower here but I could be wrong. Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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