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Thursday, May 02, 2019

We did get some downside follow through as the Dow lost 122 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is trending lower but it isn't dramatic just yet.  The VIX almost made it up to the 16 level but quickly turned around.  I think that the decline is over and that we'll be heading back up to new all time highs for the S&P 500 before option expiration.  That's my best guess at the moment.  Now if we continue lower on the jobs report tomorrow, then that thesis is out the window.  The TRAN was up good today and RUT posted a gain as well.  So I am certainly not all that bearish here and expect higher prices are coming.  GE was up over 1/8 on good volume.  Gold was lower again today as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost 1 1/3, while GDX fell 1/3.  Volume was average.  My GDX May calls are effectively dead.  I've got open orders in to salvage not having them expire but they probably won't be filled.  So it will be 100% losses tallied there.  Not a lot of money but these trades are doomed.  The weekly up trend line is now broken for the gold shares.  Support doesn't come in until much lower levels.  Perhaps the calls can be tried again in the July to October time frame.  There's some support for gold at 1250 but better support at 1200.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  A couple of days of decline for the markets but nothing serious in my view.  We'll see what the employment picture looks like and go from there.  I'm not looking at the SPY May calls as the next trade but it may be too late already.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.  Another couple of losing trades on the books but you've got to keep on going in this game.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trading action.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

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