Friday, May 17, 2019
Lower today as the market dropped in the final hour. I'm not sure if it was expiration related or what. The Dow fell 98 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is trying to turn around here but todays breadth didn't help. The VIX is right around the 16 level which makes the beginning of next week important. If the VIX can get down below 16 and stay there, the decline has ended in my view. However if the VIX climbs early next week and the market falls then that changed things. We'll just have to wait and see. The seasonally good period for stocks is over, so I'm thinking that sideways will be the most we can hope for now. Not to mention the market is at the mercy of the next headline out of China or the US. So it's a trickier than usual trading environment. GE was off 1/8 on light volume. Gold fell $8 on the futures as the US dollar was higher again. The gold shares did not follow though. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. Mentally I'm feeling better. Done with the medical stuff for now and full attention can be given to the game. There's an extra week in the June option cycle so there's no rush to do anything until a decent signal comes forth. Option premiums are high. I'm still looking at the longer term gold share calls. The S&P 500 is hanging around its 50 day moving average. The short term technical indicators are mid-range. Things could pretty much go either way here. I'll have to check out some other things over the weekend. RUT remains more oversold than overbought on a short term basis. It has also been traveling in a sideways zone since February. If it were to take out the low support at 1500, that would be the signal to buy some index puts. Hasn't happened yet and I don't know if it will. But it is something to follow as RUT is generally a leader for the market. Again, I'll be checking things out over the weekend and we'll go from there. Asia was generally higher with the exception of Hong Kong, while Europe was down. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
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