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Monday, June 03, 2019

The Dow did manage to close with a gain of 4 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  Despite the good breadth, the overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  The NASDAQ was over 100 points lower.  That is not a good sign.  The summation index continues to the downside as well.  The market remains long overdue for a bounce of some sorts.  The VIX almost made it to 20 but fell back.  RUT eeked out a gain so maybe there is hope for a pause in the decline.  The major stock indices remain oversold.  We're still at the mercy of the next headline out there.  But I would expect some kind of upside attempt to occur and soon.  Whether or not it turns things around is another story.  GE was up almost a dime on light volume.  Gold rallied strong again on the flight to safety trade.  The precious metal futures added $18 to make it to the first resistance zone at about $1325.  The US dollar fell.  The XAU jumped 3 points, while GDX gained 7/8.  Volume was heavy again.  Higher prices with volume means that a rally is underway.  My GDX June calls doubled today and then some.  23.5 is the resistance near term for GDX and I should probably get out if we get there.  This index has moved 10% in three days and we know that rate of ascent won't keep up.  But for now it looks like chasing this idea may pan out.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  Looking at the declines in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, it appears that the big cap tech stocks were to blame.  Perhaps that masked some underlying buying in the general market.  Plenty of my technical indicators are saying now is a time to buy.  But it's a tough thing to do when the seasonality is wrong and the trade headlines are dominating the news.  I should say the negative trade headlines.  A month ago all was looking rosy for some kind of US/China deal.  The market rallied on every nice thing these two had to say about each other.  What we are experiencing now is the exact opposite.  But that doesn't mean we won't go back to the love fest either.  All in all there is still plenty of time in the June option cycle for anything to happen.  Silver finally broke through its declining tops line today and the volume was decent.  It wasn't a decisive break though so it's worth keeping an eye on.  Asia was lower and Europe generally higher last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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