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Monday, June 10, 2019

We begin the week on a positive note as the Dow gained 78 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  the overall market was stronger than the Dow and that's a plus.  We did however, finish well off of the highs for the session in all the major averages.  Combine that with the short term overbought condition we now find ourselves in leads me to believe that a pause is in order.  The question is whether it is worth a trade or not.  We may have already passed the optimum point to try this short term idea.  Today could have been it.  We might simply wait for whatever pullback there is here to get the SPY June calls into the expiration next week.  Just throwing out ideas here for now.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold took a hit today as the tariffs on Mexico have been canceled.  The precious metal futures dropped $14 and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU dropped a point, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was good.  My GDX June calls are still showing a profit but it was cut in half today.  I may have missed the right time to sell here but I'm still holding them for now.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over now for the gold shares.  I'm looking for GDX to hang in there this week by moving sideways from here and then we'll see what happens after that.  Subject to change as this week progresses though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've had a pretty good rally from the recent lows but it is due for a pause here in my view.  I can't rule out a trip to new all time highs before expiration because we've made back up a lot of ground in a hurry.  However today looks like a doji (star) on the daily candlestick chart for the S&P and could be the sign of  a short term top.  We're overbought but we could stay that way as happens in solid up trends.  Tomorrows price action will go a long way to telling us where we're at.  Gold needs to hang on tomorrow if there's any hope for a consolidation instead of a drop.  That's my best guess at the moment.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight but some markets were on holiday.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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