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Friday, June 07, 2019

The rally continues as the Dow gained 263 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index has now turned up.  The jobs report was light but that didn't matter to traders as they bid prices up.  I suppose the logic is that the Fed will cut rates but that's not a given.  We are getting to what I consider the first area of resistance at 2900 for the S&P 500.  However there is still plenty of room on the short term technical indicators to go higher.  So we'll have to see what happens when we get there and that could be Monday morning.  Still two weeks to go in the June option cycle.  GE was up a nickel on light volume.  Gold only added a couple of bucks after being higher early on.  The US dollar had a decent drop and it would have been better to see gold rally more today on that but it didn't.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume.  The gold shares also finished off of their highs for the session.  It's been a nice rally for the gold shares here but it feels as though it's running out of steam here.  I am still holding my GDX June calls.  Overbought on the short term to be sure but I'm hoping for a little sideways action before an attempt at 23.5.  That is my target.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The weekly candlestick chart for the S&P now has a bullish engulfing pattern on it and that is positive going forward.  We were also able to hold on to the 50 week moving average line.  I still think that any decline in the near term can be bought but we've already moved quite a lot and the time for that SPY June calls may have passed.  Unless there's a dramatic turnaround in stocks next week, I think things are looking pretty good for the bulls.  The VIX was higher today with a rally and that's a caution flag.  But with still a lot of room to go in the short term indicators perhaps an attempt at the all time highs is in the cards.  You would not have thought that just a week ago and we are still at the mercy of the news headlines.  But who knows?  Maybe something positive on tariffs comes out and the market takes off again.  I'm just guessing with those statements.  The technicals do look like they favor higher prices from here though.  Gold is overbought and near resistance so a pause early next week is not out of the question.  Europe and Asia we're higher overnight as the risk on mode has come back.  I'll be going over the charts again this weekend to try and figure out what to do next week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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