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Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Due for a pause and we got one today as the Dow shed 14 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  the summation index is moving higher.  We did open higher and close lower for a one day downside reversal.  The short term technical indicators are starting to turn back down and they haven't just yet.  So I do think things could go either way now.  The VIX is starting to move sideways and the Bollinger bands there are coming together.  I would not be surprised to see the market roll over here again.  I do think the odds are less favorable for a run to new highs but that isn't out of the question either.  8 days left in the June option cycle so a trade is out there in my humble opinion.  GE was up a few cents on light volume.  Gold attempted to stabilize today and was up a buck or so.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on pretty light volume.  My GDX June calls are still showing a profit.  If we can continue to move sideways here, then this trade has a chance to be profitable.  If we drop from here in all likelihood this trade will die.  I'm a believer in price and volume.  The way GDX moved up recently says to me that the uptrend is real.  But whether or not it gets higher before expiration is the question.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The star appearing on the daily S&P candlestick chart yesterday doesn't look as ominous after todays price action.  But I still can't rule out that we've arrived at some type of short term top for the S&P.  If we move higher tomorrow then I'm wrong and today was the only pause we'll see.  It does seem like money around the world is moving back into stocks.  The lack of negative tariff talk seems to help.  That and jawboning by the worlds central bankers seems to have brought back the markets mojo.  We'll see how long it lasts.  Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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