Friday, June 21, 2019
Some minor selling to finish out the week as the Dow fell 34 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues higher. No news to speak of just a quadruple option expiration as happens in June. Stock indices remain overbought. There are potential evening starts on the daily candlestick charts. However the flow of money probably isn't over here and I'd expect even more new all time highs as the days go on. Things may quiet down a little now that summer has arrived. GE lost over 1/8 on lighter volume. Gold continues higher adding $6 to the $1400 level. The US dollar was lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. The technical indicators for GDX are blown out to the upside. Combine that with the strong resistance here at the 25 level and it is time for these stocks to take a breather. As it stands now, a drop back to 24 might be all we get. I'll be looking for the longer term calls at that level if we get there. mentally I'm feeling OK. We've gotten both the fed and options expiration out of the way. New all time highs were achieved for the S&P 500. Next up is the meeting between the US and China at the end of next week. Not sure what we'll see out of that and the market is always at the mercy of headline risk. The rally this week was strong and that cannot be ignored as well. The VIX did move higher in the past couple of sessions so that is something to keep an eye on. Gold broke out on very good volume but it certainly needs a rest. However the way that it moved lets you know that the rally is for real. Hopefully we'll get a chance at GDX again in the near future. I'm looking at the September or October calls. We do need to see some type of pause or consolidation though to work off this extreme overbought condition. Patience for now is what is needed there. Europe and Asia were both lower overnight. It looks like the same end of he week profit taking that we also saw today in the US. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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