Tuesday, June 04, 2019
Now that was some kind of crazy bounce! The Dow roared ahead by 512 points today on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index should start to move sideways after todays action. We were short term oversold but todays boost was from the Fed chairman. Mr. Powell stated today that rate cuts could happen because of the trade tariffs. That was all the market needed to hear. Now that doesn't mean it will happen and I doubt that it will. But it gave players the sense that the Fed will save the market going forward. We are now right at the recent declining tops line and resistance for the S&P 500. Any follow through tomorrow should break the line and signal that the decline has ended. We'll just have to wait and see but it appears that will be the case. GE jumped almost 1/2 on average volume. Gold was subdued today and only added another $3. The US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU and GDX had slight gains on low volume. It appears that the run higher in the gold shares may be over for now. We're short term overbought there now. The question is do we consolidate here before moving higher or it that it for the rally? My GDX June calls are still showing a nice profit and I will have to decide what to do here. There are still over two weeks to go in the June option cycle. I'm inclined to hold on for now. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired again, did not sleep well. So we got the bounce and now we're at the declining tops line. Tomorrow should tell a lot. It appears the move lower recently in stocks on some of the major indices looks like a measured move down. A move lower followed by a small increase, followed by the same length of move lower. If that is true the downside has ended. But today could have been a one day wonder as well. We'll know more tomorrow. The gold shares are now overbought. If we stay that way, there will be more gains to come. If not we could simply move lower from here and the gains from my GDX call trade will evaporate. The trading is never easy. We are not in a seasonal favorable time for gold normally. However we are still in the headline risk mode and that may make things different for the time being. That's a guess on my part. Asia lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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