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Friday, June 14, 2019

Another day of bouncing round as the Dow lost 17 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  We're still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  Expiration week is on tap and that usually has a positive bias.  We've got the Fed announcement on Wednesday and that will be the main market mover in my humble opinion.  The VIX got to its 50 day moving average today.  We're at the moment of truth here.  A break below and the rally will continue.  If the 50 day holds, a decline will take place.  We're oversold on the VIX but in rallies we stay that way.  Next week will tell the tale.  I'll consider a trade over the weekend if I can figure out which way to go.  GE was off eight cents on light volume.  Gold was slightly higher and finished well off the highs for the session.  The US dollar had a good day.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume.  They too finished off of their highs for the day.  As much as I would have liked to hold on to the GDX June call trade, I sold my position today.  I did not get the best price on the day but I didn't get the worst either.  The gain was 275%.  I still think that the gold share calls are the place to be and I will look to try them again on weakness.  I do think that they could move higher next week but they are short term overbought and the options are running out of time.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Trying to figure out just what's next for the market.  A run to new all time highs or a roll over for another decline?  I do think that next week will tell a lot because we are about to reach summer mode for traders.  Vacations, potential thin markets etc.  However we do remain at the mercy of the next tariff headline as well.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to try and come up with a strategy.  I like the way the gold shares broke out on volume but it may be time for a rest there.  The weekly charts show more room to the upside though.  I would have liked to have the guts to hold on to that trade but the price movement today wasn't exactly positive and perhaps we're due for a breather there.  That was my guess.  We'll see how things unfold next week.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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