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Monday, June 17, 2019

Just waiting on the Fed as the Dow rose 23 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The small stocks were relatively better that the large and that's a positive.  Sideways for a week now at the 50 day moving average for most of the major averages.  Short term overbought and staying there as well.  I would like to try the SPY June puts ahead of the Fed announcement but probably won't.  With less than a week now for the June option cycle, the risk is pretty strong.  But we'll see.  Perhaps I'll get brave before Wednesday at 11.  GE fell almost twenty cents on average volume.  Gold and the US dollar were little changed.  A waiting game here as well it seems.  The XAU and GDX had fractional upside moves on good volume.  Perhaps I should have held on to the GDX June calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to report on todays market action.  The VIX is right at its 50 day moving average and close to the moment of truth 15 level.  My guess is that all will be revealed on the markets reaction to the Fed statement on Wednesday.  I think everybody expects a no change in rates announcement with a dovish speech afterward.  Is it already in the market though?  Maybe another look at the SPY June puts is in order.  I'll ponder this idea tonight.  I don't want to think that just because the last trade was a winner that I've got things figured out.  We all should know better than that.  I am still waiting for a gold pullback to try the calls there again as well.  But it seems like the volume just keeps coming into the gold shares and that is a bullish development for sure.  I will have to try and be patient for a set up.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading activity.

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