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Tuesday, June 25, 2019

Heading down today as the Dow fell 179 points on slightly better than average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index sideways.  Once again the overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Some Fed talk and lower home sales today but nothing out of the ordinary in my view.  We were overbought and now are relieving that condition.  Whether or not it turns into something more remains to be seen.  The VIX is back above 15 and its 50 day moving average.  That's something to keep an eye on.  GE lost a few cents on light volume.  Gold added $7 on the futures but the US dollar was a bit higher today.  The XAU fell 1 1/8, while GDX dropped 1/2.  Volume was good once again.  The gold shares have been going straight up and are extremely overbought.  A drop or pause here is completely warranted.  A drop back to 24 on GDX will be where I'll be looking for the longer term calls there.  Patience is the key now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One day doesn't make a decline for stocks but the potential topping patterns that I mentioned yesterday are still in place.  We're basically on hold until the US/China meeting over the weekend.  I expect some type of positive resolution there even if it just means getting back to the bargaining table.  That would most likely lift stocks and perhaps send gold lower.  That's my guess for now.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices have rolled over.  They still have plenty of room to fall but we could also see just a sideways movement in the indicators and higher prices for stocks.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind right now since we've just rolled into the July option cycle and the premiums are high.  However if my indicators show a short term oversold reading before the weekend, I may try the SPY July calls looking for good news over the weekend.  We'll just have to wait and see how the rest of the week plays out.  Europe and Asia were lower in last nights trading action.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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