Wednesday, June 05, 2019
We did get follow through to the upside as the Dow gained 207 points on above average volume. The advance/declines were just about even though. The summation index is trending sideways for now. We've broken through the declining tops lines on some of the major indices. I'm willing to say that the decline that began in the beginning of May is over. I would look to purchase some SPY June calls on any pull back in the near term. We're still at the mercy of headline risk however the technical picture has improved and I think the trend is now up. RUT was slightly lower today but we did close above 1500 there. I'd keep a close eye on what happens here because RUT tends to be a leader. GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light. Gold was up a couple bucks as the US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume. It appears that the gold shares have run out of steam here and I'm hoping for a sideways consolidation instead of an outright decline from here. Todays price action was negative as we opened higher and spent the rest of the day selling off then moving sideways. My GDX June calls are still showing a nice profit, so when to sell them becomes the question now. With over two weeks left in the June option cycle, I'm inclined to hold them for now. Short term overbought though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Upside follow through today was a good sign for the bulls. The VIX is at 16 and the true test will be if it gets to 15 which is also its 50 day moving average. If we can get through 15, the rally will have legs. If not the selling will return. Right now I feel as though we'll get through the 15 level. If so the S&P 500 could make it back to resistance at 2900. Hasn't happened yet but it's possible. From there if it makes it, who knows? Silver could not hold on to its gains today and the volume was heavy. Ditto for gold. That doesn't bode well for the precious metal stocks near term. Sideways from here is what I'll be looking for but things could simply turn around as well. Headline risk affects these stocks as well. I'll hold on to my GDX June calls for now. Europe and Asia were both higher overnight but not with the huge gains that we saw in the US. We'll keep an eye on what transpires overnight.
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