Friday, June 28, 2019
We got some end of the month buying today as the Dow gained 73 points on extremely heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive. This will move the summation index back up. Traders were positive before the US/China meeting. Perhaps the market knows something that we don't. We'll get whatever headline comes out of that meeting and go from there. Monday will be an interesting session. My guess is that day will set the tone for the holiday week. But we can only guess at the results right now. The short term technical indicators for the major stock averages have turned back up. You get the feeling that perhaps we'll see some kind of rally to new all time highs on Monday. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. Gold was slightly higher as the US dollar was little changed again. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. A waiting game here as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I simply can't remember when the market was on such pins and needles waiting for the results of a weekend meeting. The fact that is happens on Saturday will give everyone time to digest the news. That also allows the spin to go both ways with the comments afterward. The technical indicators at the moment are pointing towards higher prices. My view is that whatever happens it will be viewed as positive and the summer rally will be on. It could be a repeat of the move higher into the June option expiration. A strong week next week followed by consolidation and then a run up into expiration. That's quite a long guess, even for me. We'll simply have to wait and see what happens. I'm waiting for the gold shares to get back to oversold but they have become popular and the wait could be a while. Still short term overbought there but the straight up move has stalled here. Remaining patient for the time being. Europe higher and Asia lower overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
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