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Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Well the Fed came and went.  The Dow rose 38 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The rally yesterday took care of whatever dovish talk that we got from the Fed today.  In reality, nothing has changed.  the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Expiration week, a positive bias and we'll see if we can get new all time highs somewhere by the end of the week.  Overbought and staying there which is the sign of a rally.  GE was off a few cents on good volume.  Gold rallied over ten bucks as the US dollar dropped.  The XAU added almost a point, while GDX rose 1/3.  Volume was good.  Very overextended on the technical indicators for the gold shares.  Reaching extremes in some cases.  That doesn't mean that the rally is over but it does mean that there isn't much more room to the upside for now.  Of course I wish I still had those GDX June calls that I sold last week.  A lot of money left on the table there.  Although I had a feeling that this is way things would play out, I could not risk the opposite happening as well.  No one could actually predict that the indicators would get this blown out to the upside.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There's still a couple days left this week to keep running things up for stocks.  The VIX is now below 15, so the rally has legs.  Just waiting on new all time highs for the S&P.  Perhaps news of a trade deal at the end of next week will do it.  Certainly interest rates won't be getting in the way of any rally at this point.  Could we climb all the way through the July option cycle?  It isn't out of the question.  The overbought technical condition is calling for a sell signal but I just don't see it happening here at the moment.  As for the gold shares money tells the story there as they have attracted it.  Price and volume tell me that this rally has staying power.  The next step is waiting for some pullback and that is what I'll do.  I'm looking out to the September and October GDX call options.  There's resistance at 25 but once GDX gets through there it is a clean shot to 30.  There is nothing in the way.  So my guess is that if this rally is for real, we'll get there in the autumn.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see how they react to the Fed tonight. 

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