Monday, June 24, 2019
Taking a breather today as the Dow was up 8 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. Waiting for the G-20 meeting which begins on Friday with the US/China trade talks to resume there. Not exactly sure what we'll see out of that. The market is still overbought here though but that hasn't mattered lately. The VIX is at its 50 day moving average. RUT and TRAN were both lower today. The TRAN has a potential head and shoulders top here and that is something to watch. A mixed bag of economic data due out this week. We've got the end of the month and 2nd quarter coming up on Friday as well. GE lost almost twenty cents on light volume. Gold continues its uninterrupted ride higher as it gained over $20. The US dollar was lower again as well. The XAU rose 2 3/4, while GDX added almost a full point. Volume was heavy. There was a chance that things would move straight up here and that is what has happened. Extremely overbought for the gold shares but there is nothing in the way of higher prices. I will still wait for some type of pullback or consolidation because chasing it here is not the best idea in my mind. I may miss out on this move if it just keeps rising but it cannot go straight up forever. I do believe in the breakout though and look for a target of 30 for GDX going forward. I'm also still in favor of going out to September or October on the GDX calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We also have some Fed speeches due tomorrow that could move things for stocks. My guess is that we're simply in a pause before we move higher. There is also a chance that some major indices are making double tops here before they move lower. QQQ, NYA and even the S&P 500 have this look at the moment. I think that we're going to continue to make new all time highs because the volume heading up to now has been pretty good. I could be wrong. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.
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