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Tuesday, June 18, 2019

A nice move higher today ahead of the Fed as the Dow soared 353 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  We got a signal last night for a big move in the next two sessions from the McClellan oscillator.  Today takes care of that.  Positive trade front news as now the US and China will start negotiating again.  There's also a supposed meeting between the two leaders at the G-20 meeting at the end of next week.  There was other positive news for certain companies that the street liked to hear.  Interesting that it all comes out during options expiration week but that is the game we are playing.  It's not a surprise as the positive expiration bias needs something to get it going.  We'll see how the market reacts to the Fed tomorrow but expect higher prices.  GE was up 1/3 on good volume.  Gold rallied as well, gaining around $8 on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  Still overbought and staying there for the gold shares as well as the overall market.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The sideways consolidation has resolved itself to the upside for the major stock indices.  I guess at this point we can expect a trip to new all time highs for the S&P 500.  The VIX fell below its 50 day moving average today.  Unless we get something negative from the Fed tomorrow, we should move up for the rest of the week regardless of the overbought conditions.  Perhaps some profit taking before the end of the week.  However if we moved like this ahead of the Fed, I doubt that we'll be heading lower anytime soon.  That is what the market is saying at the moment.  Now that could all change with a negative headline but I don't think that it will this week.  Option expiration weeks are interesting times.  Europe was higher and Asia as well with the exception of NIKK.  All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.    

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