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Thursday, June 13, 2019

Moving higher after a pause as the Dow climbed 101 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  We bounced around a lot today but a very late buying spree took the Dow up over 100.  Overbought on the short term indicators and staying that way.  That is the hallmark of a rally.  RUT had a good day and that's a plus.  The VIX continues in a sideways channel above its 50 day moving average.  The only caveat here is the low volume.  It is wise not to trust light volume rallies.  But we are almost to option expiration week so who knows?  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold continues to drift higher as the futures gained around eight bucks.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/4.  Volume was pretty light.  Remember what I just said about light volume rallies.  Overbought and staying that way here as well.  I'm still holding on to my GDX June calls.  I really need to give some thought to simply getting out of this trade even with a little over a week to go.  We will not stay overbought here forever.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still trying to figure out where we go next here.  You can easily make a case for either direction in stocks.  We could drift higher if we don't get any negative tariff headlines before expiration.  We do have some possible Middle East tensions arriving with the bombing of a couple oil tankers.  There isn't any fundamental market news at the moment.  Waiting on the Fed statement next week as a change in rates is not in the cards this time around.  But that isn't until Wednesday and that's a long way off.  I'll ponder what to do with this GDX call trade tonight and take it from there.  Asia lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow. 

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