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Monday, August 24, 2020

We begin the last week of August with a burst to the upside as the Dow gained 378 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving lower but another day like today could halt that.  The Dow was stronger than the overall market.  The S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ continue to set new all time highs.  We're still short term overbought for the major stock indices but during rallies we tend to stay that way.  I expected this week to be slow and it certainly hasn't started off that way.  GE was up 1/3 on good volume.  Gold fell $11 on the August futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU slipped 1 1/8, while GDX shed 1/4.  Volume was very light.  I'm still looking at the GDX September calls if we can get short term oversold again.  Could happen this week.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower but did finish above of the lows for the session.  The short term indicators here have reached mid-range so there is no clear signal.  However it does look like they want to roll over and that would lead to even higher equity prices.  Perhaps that is what the tighter Bollinger bands imply but the market as always will go where it wants.  We've just rolled into the September option cycle so the premiums are high.  The best case scenario for me would be to let this week pass and take it from there.  We'll see.  There's still two weeks before Labor day which is the unofficial return of all the players.  There's no overhead resistance for the NASDAQ and the S&P.  I am leery of the rally here but you cannot argue with price.  Staying patient for now.  Asia and Europe were higher as the flow of money into stocks is worldwide.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

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