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Thursday, August 13, 2020

It was a mixed bag today as the Dow lost 80 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  The NASDAQ posted a gain.  I still think that the market is on borrowed time here and won't rule out trying the SPY August puts again before option expiration next Friday.  The volume has tailed off lately that I don't even think that summer qualifies as the excuse.  Perhaps the S&P 500 will close at a new all time high soon but if we don't see any real interest, I doubt that we'll see a breakout here.  I could be wrong.  GE was off 1/8 on very light volume.  Gold continues to bounce as the futures gained over $25.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU was up 4 7/8, while GDX rose 1 3/8.  Volume was light.  I am interested in the September GDX calls.  The gold shares are short term oversold finally.  I'll try and not let that over $100 loss in gold scare me away form being positive on gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was down a bit and remains parked near its lower Bollinger band.  The Bollinger bands continue to contract and I do believe that something big is coming soon for the market.  Perhaps even before the August expiration.  This is why I continue to watch the SPY August puts.  I do not see how it can be an explosion to the upside but I guess you never know.  Even though I just had three losing trades with this idea it continues to simmer in my thoughts.  However with only six days left in the August option cycle perhaps if I do try it and it works I'll get out with some profit for a change.  I'll keep an eye on things and we'll see how it goes.  The gold share calls are also on my radar since we have finally reached short term oversold again.  Asia was generally higher with Europe lower overnight.  We'll see how the market reacts to the retail sales numbers tomorrow. 

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