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Friday, August 07, 2020

It was a back and forth session but the Dow managed to have a gain of 46 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is grinding higher.  The overall market was a bit weaker than the Dow.  The jobs report was just a bit better than expected but the market traded down at the open.  Up and down all day until we headed higher in the final hour and a half.  Still not US stimulus deal but it will happen eventually.  I bought some SPY August puts during the session.  I did however sell them at the close so I could move up a strike price that I had originally desired.  When that order got filled at the price that I wanted I sold the first batch of the lower strike for a small loss of 15%.  Now I don't usually buy and sell a position in the same day so we'll see what happens.  My thinking was that moving up to a better strike price would pay off more than simply holding on to the first purchase.  Of course if we don't see some decent selling next week the strategy simply compounded the loss.  The S&P remains overbought but I will say that todays price action seems to imply higher near term prices.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold finally showed some red as the futures dropped over $30.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost 5 1/2, while GDX shed 1 1/2.  Volume was about average.  The gold shares not following gold higher the prior sessions was tip off for todays negative price action.  The short term technical indicators for the gold shares have now rolled over.  When we get oversold here will be the time to try the GDX calls again.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  Trading the SPY requires a lot of constant paying attention and adjusting as you go along.  I was set on getting some kind of SPY put position today though.  Of course if there is an 11th hour stimulus agreement, the market should rally on the open Monday.  That would set up for another losing trade.  The VIX was lower and remains oversold.  The TRAN and IWM were both up pretty good today and that's a positive going forward.  I'm going to have to look everything over again this weekend to make sure that I have at least some idea of how long I want to hold on to this new trade.  The market certainly won't stay overbought forever but it sometimes can remain that way longer than your trades can hold out.  Asia was lower and Europe higher to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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