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Thursday, August 20, 2020

It was one day reversal to the upside as the market tried to sell off again but turned around.  The Dow was up 47 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index has begun to move lower.  Any selling that we've seen has been met with buyers every time.  Plus once again the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  As long as the liquidity is flowing, there seems to be a floor for any selling of equities.  At some point that will change but trying to predict when it will happen has been a frustrating affair despite the overbought conditions.  Simply going with the flow for now seems to be the best idea.  It isn't a sharp rally but it is a grinding to higher prices environment.  GE was off a dime on light volume.  Gold bounced up around ten bucks on the futures and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU added 2 1/3, while GDX was up 7/8.  Volume was light.  Trying to remain patient with respect to getting some gold share calls.  Ideally they'll get short term oversold once again but the market s rarely cooperate.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked up at the open with a gap lower in the stock indices.  The Bollinger bands here are now continuing to contract so I do believe that something big is going to happen soon.  I would certainly like to be positioned on the right side of whatever move happens to come out of this.  Will it be a melt up or a melt down?  It's hard to believe that we could keep going higher with all the uncertainties in the worlds economy right now led by the ongoing pandemic virus.  However the market goes where it wants and it continues to move up.  We'll simply have to listen to what it says and not try to argue with it.  Also not try to impose our will or our ideas on it because that will be a losing battle.  Still short term overbought and staying that way with option expiration on tap tomorrow.  My guess right now is that late August will move back to the summer doldrums mode.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

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