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Friday, August 21, 2020

A positive end to the week as the Dow gained 190 points on average volume.  The advance declines were around 2 to 1 negative.  Today the Dow was stronger than the overall market.  The summation index is moving lower.  A new all time closing high for the S&P 500 but I can't help but be concerned here.  The breadth on this advance has been negative and that doesn't exactly bode well for the bulls going forward.  Only a few of the tech stocks are moving the averages higher in a narrow market.  We remain short term overbought.  The market is moving up and the summation index is moving down.  That does not compute.  The Russell and the NYA have rolled over.  I really would be cautious doing anything from the long side here.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was light.  The gold futures fell $14 as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU dropped 3 1/3, while GDX shed over a point.  Volume was light.  A much needed break in the advance for the gold shares is in progress.  The 50 day moving average comes in at 39 on GDX and that would be the likely spot to try the September calls.  We are also heading back to short term oversold there.  The medium term remains overbought but not as much as it was.  There is however plenty of room for the indicators there to fall.  The volatility for gold has increased but I do think that the demand there remains in place for now.  A rally in the US dollar would change my view but we haven't seen that yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was a bit lower today but the short term indicators there have started to move up.  The tight Bollinger bands remain in place.  With a dropping summation index combined with a negative McClellan oscillator and a rise in the VIX I would have expected to see stock prices falling.  Instead we're seeing the NASDAQ, OEX and the S&P 500 climb to new all time highs.  I don't know what to make of it.  Money is flowing into a small number of stocks that are lifting these averages higher.  This is usually a late in the rally market signal.  I would be and I am definitely wary of this move higher right now.  Otherwise the backdrop remains the same.  No US stimulus package yet and the pandemic virus remains.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend as we roll into the September option cycle.  Asia was higher and Europe slightly lower to finish up the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

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