Tuesday, August 11, 2020
It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The most watched index was up over 350 points during the session but finished with a loss of 104 points on good volume. The advance/declines were just about even. The market started to drop in the final two hours of the session. We were very overbought in the short term and a decline was inevitable. It took longer than I thought. Now was it a one day wonder or the sign of things to come? I certainly wish that I knew the answer. I did go ahead and purchase some more of the SPY August puts when the market opened at a higher strike price than the ones that I already owned. They are showing a profit. Even the lower strike price puts that I bought yesterday are showing a very small gain. That's how quick things can change in the game. I'm now holding more options that I usually do but hopefully I'll be able to manage it properly. GE was up a few cents on good volume. Gold got absolutely hammered as we saw a rise for interest rates in the US. The August gold futures lost $117! Over a hundred dollars down in one day. The US dollar was only slightly higher. The XAU dropped 11 1/2, while GDX fell 3 1/3. Volume was good. Up trend lines from the March lows have been broken for the gold shares. Almost oversold on a short term basis. We should find support at the 50 day moving average for GDX. There's also plenty of support between 35 and 37 there. I still like the calls longer term now for GDX. Perhaps the September option cycle once things settle down here. Gold had been moving straight up for a while and like we said, that never ends well. This time was no exception. Had I been paying more attention perhaps I could have tried the GDX puts. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX broke through its lower Bollinger band today only to turn around a close with a gain. The short term technical indicators here have now turned back up. So there is a chance this could be more than a one day decline but I'd be guessing if I said that I knew. Managing the trade is usually a difficult proposition and that's where I'm at for the moment. Plenty of time left in the week and one down day doesn't make a trend. Right now I'm inclined to think that I'd better take whatever profit that I can out of this trade. But we'll have to see how things progress overnight. Europe and Asia were both higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment