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Tuesday, August 11, 2020

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index was up over 350 points during the session but finished with a loss of 104 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  The market started to drop in the final two hours of the session.  We were very overbought in the short term and a decline was inevitable.  It took longer than I thought.  Now was it a one day wonder or the sign of things to come?  I certainly wish that I knew the answer.  I did go ahead and purchase some more of the SPY August puts when the market opened at a higher strike price than the ones that I already owned.  They are showing a profit.  Even the lower strike price puts that I bought yesterday are showing a very small gain.  That's how quick things can change in the game.  I'm now holding more options that I usually do but hopefully I'll be able to manage it properly.  GE was up a few cents on good volume.  Gold got absolutely hammered as we saw a rise for interest rates in the US.  The August gold futures lost $117!  Over a hundred dollars down in one day.  The US dollar was only slightly higher.  The XAU dropped 11 1/2, while GDX fell 3 1/3.  Volume was good.  Up trend lines from the March lows have been broken for the gold shares.  Almost oversold on a short term basis.  We should find support at the 50 day moving average for GDX.  There's also plenty of support between 35 and 37 there.  I still like the calls longer term now for GDX.  Perhaps the September option cycle once things settle down here.  Gold had been moving straight up for a while and like we said, that never ends well.  This time was no exception.  Had I been paying more attention perhaps I could have tried the GDX puts.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX broke through its lower Bollinger band today only to turn around a close with a gain.  The short term technical indicators here have now turned back up.  So there is a chance this could be more than a one day decline but I'd be guessing if I said that I knew.  Managing the trade is usually a difficult proposition and that's where I'm at for the moment.  Plenty of time left in the week and one down day doesn't make a trend.  Right now I'm inclined to think that I'd better take whatever profit that I can out of this trade.  But we'll have to see how things progress overnight.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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