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Friday, August 28, 2020

Continuing the climb higher as the Dow gained 161 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving down but is now trying to turn around.  The money flow into stocks here is relentless but the overbought condition cannot be ignored.  The S&P is starting to go straight up and we know that never ends well.  The question is how far up does it go before it gets exhausted?  How much more overbought will things get?  At this point I am considering buying the SPY September puts on any strength Monday but will have to look at things over the weekend.  Monday is the last day of the month along with some big name stock splits.  The market is going up regardless of the news, good or bad.  It is a freight train that you don't want to step in front of.  Regardless, I'm getting a short term sell signal that gets stronger every passing day that goes up.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold rallied and the futures gained around $30.  The US dollar has started to fall again.  That will support the price of gold.  The XAU was up 5 1/3, while GDX added 1 1/3.  Volume was light.  I'm still lamenting missing on the GDX calls here but what can you do?  Move on and perhaps if the market has a decline that I'm looking for I'll be able to attempt this trade next week.  As long as the up trend line that began in March for GLD still holds, long is the way to be for gold and the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a decent drop today on the rally and that makes sense in this indicator for a change.  The short term technical indicators for the VIX are rolling over which would support higher stock prices going forward if they continue to fall.  I'm seeing extreme bullish sentiment in some indicators that isn't going to let up as long as prices continue to move higher.  The normal bearish seasonal factor for the market is nowhere to be seen.  Any attempt at a sell off is met with buyers.  On some indicators the market's been overbought for two months.  I'm saying that at this point some type of pause is overdue and as of right now I believe that it will begin sometime next week.  I'll be going over all the charts this weekend to come up with some type of game plan for the SPY September puts going forward.  Asia was mixed overnight with Japan lower on the resignation announcement of its prime minister.  Europe was lower.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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