Pageviews past week

Wednesday, August 05, 2020

It's up, up and away as the Dow gained 373 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to move higher.  The Dow was stronger than the overall market today.  Still overbought and still moving higher for the major stock indices.  I did place an open order for the SPY August puts but it wasn't filled.  I still want to own some before the jobs report on Friday.  However if I cannot get the price that I'm asking, I may just stay on the sidelines.  Still waiting on the next US bailout package.  My thinking is that I'd like to short the rally that ensues from that announcement.  However I cannot predict when the announcement will arrive.  Plus there's always the chance that we are simply in a liquidity driven market rally.  As usual the trading is never easy.  GE was up 1/4 on good volume.  Gold continues its straight line up as the August futures rose $18.  The US dollar continued its free fall.  The XAU added 1 3/4, while GDX was flat.  Volume was average.  Gold and the gold shares are long overdue for some kind of rest.  If we make it back to the up trend line here, then it may be worth a shot at the calls.  But it would probably be a better idea to wait until things get oversold and that hasn't happened in a couple months.  One thing for certain is that gold cannot go straight up forever.  The good volume here does say that the rise is for real.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX dropped again and remains oversold.  It still implies that higher prices are coming in the near term.  Regardless, I still may leave in another open order for the SPY August puts tonight.  I'll have to keep an eye on the overnight headlines since any news of the next bailout will be market important.  The underlying pandemic virus conditions remain the same.  Another up day for the S&P tomorrow will have one of my short term indicators overbought.  Most of the other short term gauges are already there.  We'll see how it goes tonight.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

No comments: