Wednesday, August 19, 2020
Some mild selling today as the Dow fell 85 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is beginning to roll over. The overall market dropped too and was a bit weaker than the Dow. Stocks began to fade after the release of the Fed minutes. Nothing earth shattering there but it was an excuse to sell. Is the S&P putting in a double top here? Maybe but with all the money still sloshing around I find it hard to believe we're on the verge of something big. Then again, I haven't been right about much lately. We are in a negative seasonal timeframe for the market but it hasn't meant anything yet. GE lost a few cents and the volume remains light. Gold got clobbered again and dropped sixty bucks on the August futures. The US dollar was higher. The XAU fell 4 3/4, while GDX lost over 1 1/2. Volume was average. Plenty of volatility for gold at the moment. I still like the GDX calls here if we get back to short term oversold again. Another area to watch is the 50 day moving average at around 38.5 if we get there. One thing to keep in mind is that we probably are not going to simply go straight back up again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX came to life and was up a little over a point. The short term technical indicators have now turned back up. This hasn't led to a sustained decline lately and it has yet to be seen if this time is any different. We'll find out in the days ahead. With only a couple of days left in this months option cycle, it's obviously too risky to do anything now in my opinion. We could easily return to the summer doldrums as well. I suppose we'll see how the rest of the week plays out and take it from there. My next trade will probably be in the GDX calls, at least that's the thinking for now. Europe and Asia were generally higher in last nights trade. We'll see if we get any follow through selling in the US tomorrow.
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