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Monday, May 22, 2023

It feels like we're running in place as the Dow fell 140 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving sideways. It was a mixed bag again with the NASDAQ moving higher and the S&P 500 practically unchanged. Being held hostage by the debt limit drama for now. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. The NASDAQ has been that way for a couple of weeks. Can't say that things will stay that way forever but that's where we are at for now. Just rolled into the June option cycle so the premiums for SPY are high. I still think that a resolution on the debt limit could be a sell the news event once the initial euphoria wears off. We'll see. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume. My open order for the June GDX calls remains in place. GDX is still short term oversold on the technical indicators. 30 is the ideal target for this move lower but we'll have to see if that happens. Also looking at the July GDX calls in case this decline has a longer shelf life. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which fits with the Dow but not the overall market. Still short term oversold here. Also put in another limit order to try BOIL again in the natural gas space. I'll let you know when and if it gets filled. Otherwise we'll have to keep up with the Washington stalemate headlines tonight. The odds favor some kind of deal and then the politicians can thankfully head away from the market spotlight. Asia was higher and Europe lower to start the trading week overseas. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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