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Wednesday, May 03, 2023

The market took a little while to figure out which way it wanted to go after the Fed but finally decided on lower as the Dow lost 270 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving lower. Got the expected 1/4 point rise in rates which led to an hour of bouncing around before selling off. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned south and perhaps we're heading to the 50 day moving average at around 4040. But I do not think this is the start of an extended decline as the NASDAQ wasn't the leader once again. But who knows? We'll know more as the rest of the week unfolds. Next up is Fridays jobs report. Gold rose almost $20 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates again. The gold shares did not participate in the upside with gold as both the XAU and GDX had just slight fractional gains on average volume. Perhaps that was because of the lower overall stock market. Well we hope that's the case otherwise it's a negative for the gold shares going forward. My GDX May calls are still in the black. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher and that fits a down market. The short term indicators here are now mid-range so where thay go next will tell us a lot. My guess is that they'll roll over again and the market will turn back up but I'm not willing to trade on that. There's still plenty of time in the May option cycle for the SPY. Europe was higher and Asia generally lower although some markets remain closed there. Tomorrow should be a waiting game on the employment report. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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