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Wednesday, May 31, 2023

To the downside but it wasn't a rout as the Dow fell 134 points on heavy end of the month volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving lower. There was a gap lower at the open and then we spent the day moving sideways. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator yesterday for a big move within the next two sessions. We'll see if it shows up tomorrow. Waiting on the debt limit approval but that is probably already in the market. The Friday jobs report is the next potential market mover. Beginning of a new month tomorrow. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over. Not sure exactly what's next here so no SPY trades for now. The NASDAQ remains short term overbought. Gold was up $5 on the futures but came off of the highs for the day. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates had a drop. The XAU gained 1 7/8, while GDX was up about 3/4. Volume was good to the upside for a change. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn back up but remain oversold. My GDX June calls are still losers. I'm not sure if GDX is going to continue higher from here or just move sideways. There's still time for this trade to perhaps work out for a small gain but we'd have to see some upside follow through the rest of this week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly which fits with todays price action. The short term indicators here are now mid-range so things could go either way now with this indicator. Not sure what to expect. Europe and Asia were down overnight. We'll be keeping an eye on the headlines tonight to see if the debt package keeps moving along.

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