Wednesday, May 17, 2023
Buyers showed up today as the Dow gained 408 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trending lower. It is also on its way towards the zero line which would imply the market falling apart. My guess is that it will turn around before that occurs but we'll see. We were hoping for weakness into Thursday to try the SPY May calls but the market did not cooperate. Might still try the calls there if the market drops tomorrow but the odds of the trade working have now gone down. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up and it appears that was have broken out of the sideways congestion to the upside. Perhaps we can make it to 4200 by the close on Friday. Gold was off $6 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates once again. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Short term oversold now for GDX but we are not in a rush to try the calls again here yet. The fact that gold is declining when is was supposed to be seen as a hedge for the debt limit problem tells us that the problem will be solved. Mentally just a bit frustrated as the market has moved up before we wanted it to. Did not take the risk of being too early on the idea and wanted to wait until the odds were at their peak. We'll move along from here. The VIX was lower today and there's still a little more room for the short term indicators to move down. Should I still try the SPY May calls tomorrow if there's weakness? Something to ponder overnight. Asia was generally down and Europe mixed in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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