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Tuesday, May 16, 2023

Heading down today as the Dow fell 336 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The market was hanging around with minor losses before dropping in the final half hour. The Dow was the leader heading lower, while the NASDAQ was barely lower. The big move in the Dow confirms the signal from the McClellan oscillator but it certainly wasn't a broad decline. The S&P 500 remains mired in a sideways trend with the indicators still stuck in mid-range territory. We are hoping to see continued weakness into Thursday so we can try the SPY May calls for a very short term trade. We'll see. Gold fell almost $30 on the futures and closed below the $2000 level. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 3 1/2, while GDX shed 7/8. Volume was average. GDX is short term oversold and almost at its 50 day moving average. Do we attempt the GDX June calls here or wait for lower prices? There is an up trend line on the weekly chart that comes in at 30 and the indicators on this chart have plenty of room to work their way lower. So perhaps some patience is necessary here for now. Waiting for a positive divergence would not be a bad idea either. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that fits a down market. The short term indicators here have now turned up. I still don't have a good idea of what to expect from the VIX. The Dow continues to drop and is now short term oversold. The NASDAQ continues to hold up and is short term overbought. The S&P 500 indicators are neither overbought or oversold. It is a very confusing and complicated situation at the moment. It will resolve itself eventually. Three days to go in the May option cycle and we'll have to hope that we trend lower here to try the SPY calls before Friday. Risky indeed to attempt it but if it sets up I feel confident that it will work. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

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