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Wednesday, May 10, 2023

It was a yoyo market today as we gapped up at the open, sold off hard and then made it all the way back and then some for most of the indices. The Dow posted a loss of 30 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving lower. Inflation data came in where expected which caused relief at the open. But sellers took over only and pounded things into a loss until halfway through the session when buyers appeared. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted decent gains for the day. The short term indicators for the S&P are still stuck in the middle but they have turned up. I'm not sure what to expect with tomorrows producer prices. Let's just say today looked like we were about to fall off a cliff and the market turned around. We'll take that as a plus. But tomorrow's another day. Gold was off around five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 1 1/8, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was light here but better than it has been lately. The gold shares did come up off of their worst levels on the day. However the short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over. Somehow the GDX May calls that I still own are still slightly in the black. I've clearly overstayed my welcome in this trade and will have to seriously consider dumping it before the weekend. Still seven days to go yet in the May option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and its short term indicators are leaning down. The low VIX is another reason why we are still thinking that the S&P will reach 4200 sometime soon. It remains solidly below the all important level of 20 which normally indicates higher stock prices to come. Again, things could change tomorrow but if the inflation data comes in benign stocks could rally. Our own work says that the PPI might come in a little hot so we'll see. Europe and Asia had losses last night. On to Thursdays infation data.

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