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Thursday, May 04, 2023

Still moving lower as the Dow fell 286 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues down. The Dow has been leading the way lower. The S&P 500 is almost to its 50 day moving average at 4040. We'll have to see what happens if and when it gets there. The fact that the NASDAQ hasn't been leading the way down is a plus in my mind and one of the reasons that I don't think that the decline will be something big. I could be wrong. Getting short term oversold on the S&P but not completely there yet. If the S&P is down tomorrow we'll look for a bounce at the beginning of next week. Not sure if it will be worth trying the SPY May calls there though. Employment data tomorrow should be a mover. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures but came off of the best levels of the day. The US dollar was slightly higher as it finished well off of the lows for the session. Interest rates dropped. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX added 7/8. Volume was good to the upside. My GDX May calls are showing a gain but finished well off of the best levels for the day. Still holding this trade for now as GDX is stalling at 36, the area of near term resistance. If it can get through there it will have room to run. Gold itself is close to setting a new all time high. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up and barely closed above 20 and its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are not yet completely overbought. Perhaps we should listen to both the lower summation index and the rising VIX. They imply more selling going forward and more than I am anticipating. So we'll see. The market always knows more than we do. Perhaps there's more bank failures on the way. Just a guess there. Asia higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

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