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Monday, May 08, 2023

Just hanging around would be the best way to describe todays price action as the Dow fell 55 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still tracking lower. Waiting on the inflation data would sum things up. Mixed as well since the NASDAQ posted a small gain. The S&P finished flat. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are around mid-range now. So either way from here is a possibility. I guess I'll still look for the S&P to get to 4200 this week as we've been waiting on that for a few weeks. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates rose. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are slightly overbought and starting to roll over. This does not look good for our GDX May calls. They are still sporting a profit but not nearly as much as last week. Time premium is being sucked out and the light volume is no help. Might have to think about dumping them before they turn into a loss. Still nine days to go though and the reaction to the inflation data will most likely determine the outcome of this trade. Gold finished off of the highs of the session and that's a negative. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. Not sure where the VIX is headed next. Not close to short term overbought or oversold here. Indecision time in the market. A meeting in Washington on the debt limit could influence markets one way or the other. But the inflation data will probably be the main driver for this week. Asia was higher with the exception of Japan while Europe was quiet and mixed. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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