Tuesday, May 23, 2023
To the downside today as the Dow fell 231 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving sideways which is creating a ledge. Usually this indicates that things will fall off the ledge. We'll see if that's the case this time around. The NASDAQ was the leader heading down and that is not a plus. The short term indicators have now turned down for the S&P 500. Is it possible that the debt limit deal won't get done and the markets will collapse? I doubt it. Washington will eventually come up with something to avoid that scenario. Perhaps the extended overbought conditons of the market are finally getting adjusted. Whatever the situation, one day doesn't make a trend. The market has the rest of the week to sort things out. Gold finished around unchanged after being lower early on. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were flat. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. GDX remains short term oversold. I adjusted my order lower for the GDX June calls. I'm now thinking that GDX may hang around for a while before any meaningful move higher. I could be wrong. Up trend lines for GDX and gold itself remain in place for now. We will look to own some gold share calls if GDX gets back to that line at around 30. If it doesn't hold we'll take the loss and move on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and the short term indicators have moved up from being oversold. Unsure as to whether this is a one day wonder or the beginning of a real move higher in the VIX. Still below both the 50 day moving average and the important 20 level. We'll keep an eye on it. The market is being held hostage to the debt limit debate and deadline. This too shall pass but for now we'll have to wait on Washington. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.
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