Thursday, May 18, 2023
Continuing higher as the Dow added 115 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn around again. It should be successful this time around. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way despite being short term overbought for an extended period. The S&P 500 finally made it to 4200 and closed just below there today. The short term indicators are pointing up and are not completely overbought yet. So we will expect higher prices going forward. The market knows more than we do and it appears to be telling us that the debt limit deal will get done. That could be a sell the news event since the markets are already moving higher. 4300 is the next target for the S&P. Gold was off $25 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates which has been the theme lately. The XAU lost about 3 points, while GDX dropped another 7/8. Volume was good to the downside. Short term oversold for GDX and I did place an order for the GDX June calls that I'm leaving out there. Gold itself is just about at its longer term up trend line and a bounce on it should be expected although it is possible for it to just continue through. The longer term up trend line for GDX comes in at 30 but if gold bounces I'd expect the gold shares to go along in the near term too. Again however there's the chance that the precious metals complex just keeps dropping. We'll now soon enough. I'd also like to add that on the daily GDX chart there is now a double top with a masuring objective of 30 to the downside. Mentally I'm feeling as though I missed another decent SPY trade by not getting the calls this week. We were leaning that way but did not want to take the early risk. Once again in retrospect we should have. The VIX was lower today which fits with the rally. Short term oversold here with just a little more room left. The VIX implies that the rally has legs and I'd have to agree. We sold our leveraged ETF BOIL today as natural gas moved up sharply today. The gain on this trade was 18%. More money was involved to take this position so we will be quick to exit once we have a solid profit. Still learning how this product is traded but we will buy it once again if and when it gets back down to where we purchased it this time around. Asia and Europe were higher as money is moving back into stocks around the globe. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.
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