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Thursday, May 25, 2023

Bouncing higher for the overall market but the Dow fell 35 points on average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues down. Earnings from NVDA sparked a huge rally in tech stocks that drove both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 higher. The short term indicators for the S&P are turning back up. Not sure where we are going from here as the breadth hasn't been keeping up with the gains. However I would expect some kind of relief rally when the debt limit agreement comes to pass. Whether or not we trust that rally is another question. Gold fell $23 on the futures. The US dollar and interest rates continue to climb. The XAU lost 2 1/2, while GDX shed 2/3. Volume was about average. I did purchase some of the GDX June calls today. They are showing a small loss. Short term oversold on the gold shares and staying that way which could be dangerous for this trade. GDX is almost at 30 and close enough for me to put this trade on. We should at the least see some kind of boounce here for GDX. However if we break through the 30 level and stay there, this index is in more trouble than I thought. So we'll keep an eye on things and see where we go from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits the overall market. Still below 20 but it is above its 50 day moving average. I'm still not sure where it's going from here. A long weekend coming up so some of the players could be missing tomorrow. We've got inflation data coming out and that could be an early market mover. Washington dealings remain on the table for now as well. So we'll see how we close out the week. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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