Wednesday, May 24, 2023
Sellers remained in control today as the Dow fell 255 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower and on the way to the zero line. We all know what will happen if we go through there as the market will fall apart. I'm hoping that won't happen but if it does opportunities will be created. In the meantime the short term up trend line for the S&P 500 was violated today. The short term indicators here are moving down and still have a ways to go to get oversold. So things don't look promising for the bulls at the moment. However as soon as the debt limit agreement is announced, we should see a relief rally take place. Gold was down $14 on the futures today. The US dollar was higher and interest rates continued to climb. The XAU fell 3 1/4, while GDX dropped 1/4. Volume was average. Getting closer to the target of 30 for GDX. I again adjusted down my open order for the GDX June calls. Short term oversold and staying that way for GDX. Perhaps attempting the gold share calls is the wrong idea here but we are getting buy signals from some of the indicators. I also placed an order for the GDX July calls in case I'm too early with purchasing the calls for June. If GDX breaks the up trend line at 30 on the weekly chart then any call trades will be canceled as the decline for the gold shares will be much larger than anticipated. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX popped above 20 today and closed at that level. It's moving to short term overbought rather quickly. If the VIX gets above 20 and stays there it will be trouble for the market. Hasn't happened yet but we'll keep an eye on it. We'll see how things progress in tonights session and take it from there. Orders may have to be adjusted overnight. Europe and Asia continued down last night. It looks like after hours earnings from NVDA are giving the futures a lift. We'll see how it goes from there.
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