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Friday, May 19, 2023

We opened higher and closed lower today as the Dow fell 109 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is starting to track sideways. Perhaps it's just a pause at the 4200 level before moving higher. Or maybe just more angst about the debt limit drama. Short term overbought on some of the S&P 500 indicators. I suppose we'll just have to wait and see where things go from here as we roll into the June option cycle. Option premiums will be pricey and there will be a holiday weekend at the end of next week. So unless we get a solid signal for trading the SPY we'll wait on the sidelines. Gold bounced twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower but interest rates continued their climb. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. I've left the order for the GDX June calls out there for now. GDX remains short term oversold at the moment. May adjust the order going forward but if GDX gets to 30 we will be buying some calls then. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that goes along with lower stock prices. Still short term oversold here but the VIX can stay that way during rallies. Comfortably below the 20 level here which implies higher prices in the future. Not much economic data out next week until Fridays inflation numbers. Might have to be patient for now. We'll look over the charts this weekend and take it from there. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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