Thursday, May 11, 2023
We're still getting mixed signals as the Dow fell 221 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving lower. We've had the summation index moving down but the stock market going sideways and that might be a good thing for the bulls. The producer prices came in tame but we had an early sell off. The NASDAQ was up yet again despite overall market weakness. Something has to give here sooner or later. I almost purchased some SPY May calls today because I do think we will resolve this indecision to the upside. Whether or not it's before option expiration is another question. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still mid-range. Gold fell $17 on the futures as silver got crushed today and lost over $1. The US dollar was higher and interest rates fell slightly. The XAU lost 5 1/2, while GDX tanked 1 1/2. Volume was good to the downside. My GDX May calls are now solid losers and all but dead. The only reason that I held on to them is that GDX is so blown out to the downside on some indicators that there should be some kind of bounce tomorrow to exit the trade. This one was poorly managed once again as a winner turned into a loser. Lack of discipline once again reared its ugly head. Greed may have been a slight factor. There was a glaring potential negative RSI divergence on the GDX daily chart that I chose to ignore. It manifested itself today with a huge loss in the index. I'm not sure why silver had such a huge decline but it looks like the industrial metals are coming down. Copper is dropping and could be a precursor to a slowing economy. Silver heading down would fit into that scenario. No matter. We'll take the loss on this GDX call trade tomorrow and try to move on. Mentally I'm frustrated of course as I did not have the right frame of mind to do what had to be done in the GDX call trade. Not a lot of money involved but the mental loss is always harder to deal with. But you've got to find a way to put it behind you and go forward. The VIX was flat on the session and the technical conditon there remains the same. Not sure where it is headed next. Asia and Europe were generally lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.
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