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Friday, May 05, 2023

Buyers took over today as the Dow soared higher by 546 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive. The summation index is still heading lower. Employment was a bit better than expected and the earnings from Apple were viewed as positive. It appears that yesterdays heavy volume combined with the selling was an exaustion point to the downside for now. We were looking for a bounce at the beginning of next week but it came early. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that's a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. The weekly candlestick chart there looks constructive although it is overbought. We'll get inflation data out next week and that should be the next mover for markets. Gold got crushed as the futures dropped $30. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates were up. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. The fact that the gold shares held up rather well despite the loss in gold itself is encouraging. However the short term indicators for GDX are starting to roll over. The weekly candlestick chart for gold does not look good for the bulls. My GDX May calls are still in the black but we'll need to think hard over the weekend about what to do here. Never anything easy in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped big as todays stellar gains imply. The short term indicators here have rolled over and it looks like higher stock prices in the near future according to the VIX. So we'll have to ask again, are we finally on our way to 4200 on the S&P? The reaction to next weeks inflation data will probably answer that. Plenty of work to do going over the charts this weekend. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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