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Thursday, June 01, 2023

It wasn't exactly a big move in the Dow but the overall market was up better than the most watched index. The Dow gained 153 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up before it crosses the zero line. I'm guessing it will be successful. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way. The debt ceiling bill made it through one house of Congress and it seems like a done deal. The employment report out tomorrow should provide the market with reasons to move one way or the other. The S&P 500 is still not completely short term overbought so it could move higher from here. Back above 4200 but it hasn't been what we'd call a broad based rally. I still don't have any SPY trades in mind for now. Gold was up $13 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dipped slightly. The gold shares found buyers as the XAU gained 4 points, while GDX added 1 1/8. Volume was good to the upside for a second day in a row. The short term indicators for GDX have now turned up with room to move higher. The longer term up trend line for GDX is still in place. My GDX June calls have moved into the black. However this trade still has to be managed properly from here. Do I get out with the small profit now or hold on for more gains? There's still a couple of weeks left in the June option cycle. It does appear that we at least have some kind of bottom in place with the gold shares now. But that could all change tomorrow in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped and that fits todays price action. It appears that it has closed at a new low for the year. The low VIX is bullish for stocks and it is not completely short term oversold yet. It is oversold on a weekly basis though. Just a day left in the shortened trading week. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how the market reacts to the jobs report to close out the week tomorrow.

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