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Wednesday, June 14, 2023

We had some selling today despite better than expected inflation numbers and no real surprises from the Fed. The Dow fell 232 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. We did get some volatility after the Fed announcement as the market moved down and up. But by the time the day was finished it was a mixed bag. The NASDAQ remains the leader and posted a gain on the day. The S&P 500 finished slightly higher. The major stock indexes remain short term overbought and due for a pause. The S&P is getting pretty far from its 50 day moving average. Even if we do see some selling or sideways movement, the trend is up. Not sure where the liquidity is coming from but buyers are in charge. Only a couple of trading days left before a long weekend in the US. I guess we'll see how far things can go into option expiration Friday. Gold finished flat on the day. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were mixed. The XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume. They also bounced back and forth during the session but the result was right where we left yesterday. No interest in the gold shares for now but the longer term up trend line for GDX does remain intact. I am thinking about the GDX July calls but after the recent losing trade in GDX I'm also looking elsewhere. The fact that the up trend line from last October is still in place to me is a plus. But that hasn't translated into a profitable trade for me yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is below the 14 level. Still short term oversold but the VIX is in positive territory for this indicator overall. It is another reason to stay in the bullish camp for now. Retail sales data out tomorrow and that could be a market mover. I will probably stay on the sidelines and wait for the July option cycle to make the next trade. We'll see. Europe was up and Asia mixed overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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