Tuesday, June 27, 2023
Buyers returned today as the Dow gained 212 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is now trying to turn around and is tracking sideways. The NASDAQ was the leader to the upside. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to turn back up. We'll know in the coming sessions if this was just a bounce or the start of another leg higher. If we rally back to the recent highs on light volume, we will try the SPY July puts at that time. If we simply hang around after todays gains, then we'll know that the market is running out of gas. Timing as always will be the key to this idea. Gold fell ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU was off 1 1/8, while GDX lost 3/8. Volume was average to the downside. I did place an overnight order for the GDX July calls and it was filled. The entry price wasn't the greatest and the trade is showing a small loss to start. The stop loss order is in as we will try and prevent another big loss from trading the gold shares. The potential positive RSI divergence remains intact for GDX but more selling this week will negate that. So we'll see where things go from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits todays market price action. The short term indicators are beginning to roll over here. The VIX still implies higher stock prices going forward. Perhaps we should take our cues from this indicator. I will say that if the summation index starts moving back up we may have to shelve our SPY put idea. We are in the next trade and I'll try and manage it correctly for a change so we'll go from here. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of Japan. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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