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Friday, June 30, 2023

The summar rally is in full swing as the Dow climbed 285 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving back up. Inflation data came in where expected and the market opened with a gap higher and never looked back. The NASDAQ was the leader and that's a plus. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up and are reaching overbought territory. We are getting our wish of a light volume rally back to the recent highs and closed above them today. The question is do we follow through with the SPY July puts now? Can we explain away the light volume to the pre-holiday summer week? Always plenty of questions without clear answers. We'll have plenty to consider over the long weekend. Monday is a shortened session. Gold was up $10 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were mixed. The XAU gained over 2 points while GDX added 1/2. Volume wasn't bad considering it was a getaway Friday. The weekly chart for GDX now has what appears to be a hammer off of its 50 week moving average. Looking back the GDX calls that I sold this week for a loss are back to break even. The GDX calls that I did not purchase yesterday morning have more than doubled. And so it goes in the trading game. Perhaps If the gold shares show some weakness next week we'll try the calls again. But it is probably too late. A two month down trend line on the daily chart for GDX comes in at 30.25 and we are very close to breaking through. Mentally I'm still in the frustrated mode with regards to my trading decisions this week. Timing is everything and so is the belief in your ideas. Having the ability to move forward can't be dismissed and that is what I'll be working on over the weekend. The VIX was lower today but came up from lower levels. It remains bullish but those Bollinger bands continue to contract. Not yet short term oversold here on a daily basis. Stock market indices are moving up here as we are in a summer rally. How far will it go is the question. We'll go over the charts this weekend but the real trading won't begin until Wednesday of next week. Hopefully I'll come up with some type of game plan by then. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to finish the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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