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Tuesday, June 13, 2023

Inflation data came in where expected and the market took off to the upside as the Dow gained 146 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way. Overbought and extended here but the market keeps moving up. I'm not sure how much longer this can go on. It's starting to appear as though we are going straight up and that never ends well. Overdue now for at least a pause. We get the Fed and producer prices tomorrow so we'll see how that goes. The positive expiration week bias is in effect for now. The technical conditon for the major indices remains the same. Overbought and staying that way. Gold fell $13 on the futures as the inflation data was a non event here. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were up. After a brief pop at the open the gold shares lost ground again. Both the XAU and GDX were off 1/3 on light volume. I dumped the GDX June calls for a 95% loss as this trade was dead and needed a miracle to turn around. Poorly managed once again plus costly. Although the longer term trend line for GDX remains intact, the gold shares haven't been acting good for a while. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back down again but they've been going back and forth since the month began. Not sure what to do here next but I did consider rolling into the GDX July calls. We'll have to see if the weekly up trend line holds the rest of this week. Mentally I'm feeling a bit down as the losing trade weighs on the mental capital. However win or lose you've always got to keep moving in this game. There is no time to feel sorry for yourself or lament. Just as there is no time for celebrations and pats on the back. The markets just keep going. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. Still short term oversold here but not at an extreme. I don't know what's next in store for the VIX. There shouldn't be any surprises from the Fed tomorrow and it is already probably baked into the market. Could be a sell the news event but we'll see. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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