Monday, June 26, 2023
Another mixed bag today as the market is trying to gain some footing. The Dow was down 12 points today on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ once again leading the way down. That remains a negative. Positive breadth with a lower market isn't the norm for market behavior. Not sure what's going on here but we were looking for a pause in the rally and we are getting that. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 continue to head lower but are not oversold yet. We are still interested in the July SPY puts but not without some kind of light volume rally first. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was light. The potential positive RSI divergence for the gold shares remains intact and I am thinking about putting in an order for the GDX July calls overnight. Not exactly sure this is another good idea but we'll have a stop loss order in place this time around so that if it fails it won't be another total disastor. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits a down market. The short term indicators for the VIX are now moving up. Not overbought on the short term just yet but a couple more down days would do it. Stocks appear to have run out of steam to the upside for now. This week will finish off the month of June and lead into a long holiday weekend. Traders should get things done by the end of the week and then summertime will really hit. There's still plenty of time in the July option cycle but the trading might slow down with the summar doldrums. it is another thing to consider when taking on any trades going forward. Asia was lower and Europe mixed to start the trading week overseas. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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