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Thursday, June 15, 2023

The rally lives on as the Dow climbed 428 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. All the major stock averages posted gains as sellers have disappeared. Getting overbought to the extreme for some of the indices that are straight lines going up. Like I've said before we are getting too far from the 50 day moving averages. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 fit that description. It appears our guess of the indices running up into option expiration was correct. But this cannot last forever and some type of drop or consolidation is in the cards going forward. We'll enjoy the ride while it lasts. Gold was up a buck on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. The Bollinger bands on the GDX daily chart are starting to converge implying a big move is coming. Which way is the question. That longer term up trend line for GDX remains intact. The short term indicators remain mid-range though. I did put in another order for the GDX July calls today. For some reason I still believe that the gold shares will hold up here and rally. Am I simply a glutton for punishment? No. As long as the up trend line in place from last October for GDX remains valid I have to think that prices will rise from it. If that line gets broken then we will forget about the calls. I am however concerned that the US dollar dropped hard this week and gold did not rally. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today despite a huge rally for stocks. That isn't the usual relationship. Not sure what that's all about. The VIX remains short term oversold but in an area that favors higher prices going forward. Markets can and do sometimes remain overbought for extended periods. It appears that we are in such period right now. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower overnight. We've got expiration Friday tomorrow ahead of a long weekend. We'll see how it goes.

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